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In the current context of climate emergency, foresight has become an essential tool for assessing the different possible trajectories of the energy mix and the new opportunities to deploy disruptive energy technologies. It seems important to question the robustness of mathematical models used to predict future energy mixes.
The Energy market workshop 2022 will be organized around the presentation and discussion of state-of-the-art technologies to tackle different modelling approaches and the challenges related to the integration of these methods into models for different sectorial applications (mobility, gas and electricity, etc.).
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* 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘳𝘨𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘻𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘦
WEDNESDAY 14 DECEMBER
10h - Opening of the conference / Emmanuel Hache (Energy Markets scientific correspondent, IFPEN) and welcome address / Pierre-Franck Chevet (CEO, IFPEN)
10h30 - 12h30
Session 1 : Prospective Modelling
Chaired by Benoît Chèze (IFPEN) et Olivier Massol (IFP School)
- Research in foresight at IFPEN: How to assess the economic and environmental impacts of energy transition innovations. Benoît Chèze (IFPEN) et Olivier Massol (IFP School)
- Keynote: Long-term energy foresight: how to deal with geopolitical, technological and societal uncertainties? Patrick Criqui (Université Grenoble Alpes, GAEL, CNRS)
14h - 18h
Session 2 : Considering ruptures in prospective modelling.
Chaired by Emmanuel Hache (IFPEN)
- Keynote : Dynamic continuous or breakthrough modelling of GDP/capital-infrastructure-energy-material-price changes and impacts: the DyMEMDS model. Olivier Vidal (ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble-Alpes)
- Blue vs Green Hydrogen: The impact of methane emission in hydrogen scenario development. Vincent D’Herbemont, Emmanuel Hache, Louis-Marie Malbec (IFPEN)
- Modeling the economics of low-carbon energy systems, preliminary insights from a stochastic dynamic programming perspective. Olivier Massol (IFP School)
- PRospective EnvironMental Impact asSEment (Premise): A streamlined approach to producing databases for prospective LCA using IAM. Romain Sacchi (Paul Scherrer Institute, Suisse)
THURSDAY 15 DECEMBER
Session 3 : Case Studies: Integrating behavioral approaches into transport demand models.
Chaired by Benoît Chèze (IFPEN)
- Keynote : For a better representation of lifestyles in energy-climate foresight studies. Mathieu Saujot (IDDRI)
- Preferences for low-carbon vehicles: an analysis of barriers to adoption through a discrete choice experiment. Alexandre Cambo (IFPEN, EconomiX Université Paris - Nanterre, France), Benoît Chèze (IFPEN), Johanna Etner (EconomiX Université Paris - Nanterre, France)
- The DRIVERS model: DiscRete choIce modeling for low-carbon VEhicles fleet scenaRioS. Xavier Guichet (IFPEN)
- Keynote : Using laboratory economic experiments for a better understanding of travel behaviors. Laurent Denant-Boëmont (Université Rennes 1, CREM, CNRS)
Round table discussion : Carbon neutrality in 2050 (negotiations, States, etc.), moderated by François Kalaydjian (IFPEN) with:
- Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega (IFRI, France) ;
- Jean-Baptiste Fressoz (EHESS, CNRS, France) ;
- Stéphane La Branche (GIECo-IPBC, France) ;
- Jean-Eudes Moncomble (CFE, France).
Closing address by the Organization Committee : Emmanuel Hache, Guillaume Batot, Benoît Chèze et Olivier Massol