Selected as part of the European ERANET-Electromobility+ programa and coordinated by IFPEN, the SCelecTRA(1) project was aimed at assessing the potential and conditions for the development of electric mobility in Europe up to 2030.
What is particularly original about this project is:
- its cross-disciplinary approach, via the development of a road transport demand simulation model (based on economic hypotheses),
- methodological developments in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA),
- and a TIMES modelb for economic optimization, simulating all the European energy sectors and their interactions.
The project evaluated more than sixty different prospective scenarios, leading to electrified (electric and plug-in hybrid) vehicle market shares of between 15 and 30% by 2030. These vehicles represent the most favorable alternative to conventional vehicles in terms of:
- the impact on the reduction of fossil fuel consumption,
- and greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the impact of this technological solution varies between European countries depending on the carbon intensity of their respective energy mixes. In addition, the LCA results highlight the importance of the battery production phase in their environmental performance.
In all cases, the emergence of an electrified vehicle market cannot be achieved without the large-scale development of a network of recharging terminalsc. In addition, the project demonstrates that scrappage schemes and electric vehicle purchase incentive programs appear to be more effective than additional taxes on traditional fuels(2) to promote this technology.
Ongoing improvements on the TIMES model make it possible to determine whether the additional electricity demand could be covered by lower consumption in other sectors or will require new capacities.
a- European research program (FP7); Grant N 12-MT-PREDITG01-2-CVS-2
b- TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models are bottom-up models for dynamic optimization under the effect of constraints concerning the modeling of medium-term energy scenarios (2030-2050). For more information: https://iea-etsap.org
c- Between 100 and 200 terminals per 1,000 vehicles in 2030.
(1) Scenarios for the electrification of transports in Europe - SCelecTRA Final Report, Report, EU, SCelecTRA (FP7 ERA-NET project), June 2015
(2) P. Gastineau, B. Chèze, Fuel price and income elasticities of the road transport demand in Europe: A dynamic panel data analysis, Transportation Research Part A : Policy and Practice, en révision.
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