Les Cahiers de l’Économie n°143 - "Short-term electricity price forecasting models comparative analysis: Machine Learning vs. Econometrics"

The collection “Les Cahiers de l’Économie” aims to present work carried out at IFP Energies nouvelles and IFP School dealing with economics, finance or energy transition management .

Short-term electricity price forecasting models comparative analysis: Machine Learning vs. Econometrics
N° 143 – May 2021  
Antoine Ferre, Guillaume de Certaines, Jérôme Cazelles, Tancrède Cohet, Arash Farnoosh, Frédéric Lantz


This paper gives an overview of several models applied to forecast the day-ahead prices of the German electricity market between 2014 and 2015 using hourly wind and solar productions as well as load. 


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Estimating discrete choice experiments: theoretical fundamentals
N°142 – April 2021  
Benoît Chèze, Charles Collet, and Anthony Paris


This working paper overviews theoretical foundations and estimators derived from econometric models used to analyze stated choices proposed in Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) surveys.


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Cinquième période à venir : les Certificats d’Economies d’Energie, catalyseurs du couple Reprise / Transition Ecologique ? 
N°141 - March 2021   [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
Maxime Schenckery, Jacques Millery

Les travaux sur la forme que devra prendre la 5^ème période de CEE ont continué, suscitant bien des débats, et aboutissant à une première série de propositions rendue publique début février 2021.


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Trajectory Based Robust Optimization Applied to the Case of Electricity Facilities Investment with Significant Penetration of Renewables
N°140 – February 2021  
Pierre Cayet, Arash Farnoosh

As large scale penetration of renewables into electric systems requires increasing flexibility from dispatchable production units, the electricity mix must be designed in order to address brutal variations of residual demand. Inspired from the philosophy of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we propose a trajectory ambiguity set including residual demand trajectories verifying both support and variability criterion using ambiguous quantile information.

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Quantifying virtual water scarcity risk transfers of energy system in China
N°139 – January 2021  
Xuebing Yao, Xu Tang, Arash Farnoosh, Cuiyang Feng

Using multi-regional input-output analysis, this study estimates the virtual flows ad virtual water scarcity risk transfers driven by interprovincial energy consumption in China. Results could provide reference value for policymakers to develop new energy strategies and manage water resources sustainably.


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