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(also available in the HAL-IFPEN collection: "Les Cahiers de l’Économie”)

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2020

Couverture - Cahier Economie n°138How are day-ahead prices informative for predicting the next day’s consumption of natural gas?
N°138 – December 2020  
Arthur Thomas, Olivier Massol, Benoît Sévi


Using data from France, this paper investigates, for the first time, whether the next day’s consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°137Dynamics of biofuel prices on the European market
N°137 – November 2020  
Francis Declerck, Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian, Frédéric Lantz


This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°136Certificats : marier reprise économique et transition écologique 
N°136 - September 2020  [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
Maxime Schenckery, Jacques Millery

Dans une économie durement touchée par la COVID 19, comment remettre en fonction des acteurs de base de l’économie sur notre territoire à travers des activités porteuses de sens liées à la transition énergétique, dans un contexte de crise où en plus un prix du pétrole bas n’encourage pas cette transition ?
L’utilisation du mécanisme des certificats permet-il de résoudre ce paradoxe, en mariant support à la relance économique et transition énergétique ?

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°135Building infrastructures for Fossil- and Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage: insights from a cooperative game-theoretic perspective 
N°135 - August 2020 
Emma Jagu, Olivier Massol


This paper examines the deployment of a shared CO2 transportation infrastructure needed to support the combined emergence of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and fossil energy with carbon capture and storage (CCS).

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°134Energy, Knowledge, and Demo-Economic Development in the Long Run
N°134 – May 2020  
Emmanuel Bovari, Victor Court


In this article we provide a quantitative analysis of the role of energy in long-term growth, accounting for the interaction between human capital accumulation and technological change. To do so, we design a unified growth model featuring fertility and educational choices, energy resources extraction, directed technical change, and endogenous general purpose technologies diffusion.

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°133A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking
N°133 – March 2020  
Andrew Hook, Victor Court, Benjamin Sovacool, Steve Sorrell


This review assesses how changes in working practices are associated with different forms of teleworking, including the use of different ICTs, various commuting/travel options, and different working spaces such as offices, cafes, libraries, and homes.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°132 What can be learned from the free destination option in the LNG imbroglio?
N°132 – January 2020  
Amina Baba, Anna Creti, Olivier Massol


This article examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. Results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels.


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2019

Couverture - Cahier Economie n°131A Representation of the World Population Dynamics for Integrated Assessments Models 
 N° 131 – November 2019
 Victor Court, Florent McIsaac


Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950–2015. We then add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°130Rate-of-return regulation to unlock natural gas pipeline deployment 
 N° 130 – September 2019
 Florian Perrotton, Olivier Massol


Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile the public authorities’ ambition for the construction of a large national pipeline system and the preference of foreign private investors for smaller infrastructure that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites.

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°129Copper at the Crossroads 
 N° 129 – July 2019
 Clément Bonnet, Gondia Seck, Emmanuel Hache, Marine Simoën, Samuel Carcanague


The aim of this article is to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to answer the question whether copper could become critical to the power and the transport sectors due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies compared to conventional technologies.

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°128Understanding farmers’ reluctance to reduce pesticide use: A choice experiment 
 N° 128 – June 2019
 Benoît Chèze, Maïa David, Vincent Martinet


This article analyzes conventional farmers’ willingness to reduce their use of synthetic pesticides. To do so, a discrete choice experiment was design to include the risk of large production losses due to pests.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°127Economic Assessment of the Development of CO2 Direct Reduction Technologies in Long-term Climate Strategies of the Gulf Countries 
 N° 127 – May 2019
 Frédéric Barbonneau, Ahmed Badran, Maroua Benlahrech, Alain Haurie, Maxime Schenckery, Marc Vielle


In this paper, we explore the long-term options offered to GCC countries by Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies in the negotiations for a fair burden sharing of Paris agreement objectives.


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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°126Some Geopolitical Issues of the Energy Transition
 N° 126 – March 2019  [ STUDY & SYNTHESIS ]
 Emmanuel Hache, Samuel Carcanague, Clément Bonnet, Gondia Seck, Marine Simoën


This article is a summary in English of the Policy Paper published in January 2019 under the title “Vers une géopolitique de l’énergie plus complexe ? Une analyse prospective tridimensionnelle de la transition énergétique”, Policy Research Working Paper, Projet GENERATE, IRIS – IFP Energies nouvelles – ANR.

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Couverture - Cahier Economie n°125On the CO2 emissions determinants of the EU ETS Phases I and II
 N° 125 – February 2019 
 Benoît Chèze, Julien Chevalier, Nicolas Berghmans, Emilie Alberola


This article studies ex-post the CO2 emissions determinants during 2005-2012 by resorting to an original database merging the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) with the World Electric Power Plants (WEPP) database maintained by Platts.


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2018

  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°124 The Nexus Between Climate Negotiations and Low-Carbon Innovation :A Geopolitics of Renewable Energy Patents
 N° 124 – December 2018
 Clément Bonnet, Samuel Carcanague, Gondia Seck, Emmanuel Hache, Marine Simoën


Intellectual property is a central issue in the climate negotiations. On the one hand, it shapes and encourages innovation in low‐carbon technologies. On the other hand, it reduces access to these technologies by giving patent holders market power. We analyze the interactions between climate negotiations and the acquisition of patents on renewable energy technologies.

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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°123Analyzing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risk of Renewable Energy in China
 N° 123 – October 2018
 Yue Zhang, Arash Farnoosh


Although the electricity market in China has gone through several reforms, there is not yet a competitive spot or derivative market. This article proposes a model that estimates the risk premium and simulates the future prices in China’s market.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°122Climate-energy-water nexus in Brazilian oil refineries 
 N° 122 – September 2018
 Fernanda Guedes, Alexandre Szklo, Pedro Rochedo, Frédéric Lantz, Leticia Magalar, Eveline Maria, Vásquez Arroyo


By simulating two parametric models, one for all Brazilian refineries, and the other locally detailing the water balance of the country´s largest refinery, this study aimed to quantify the impacts of CO2 mitigation options on the water use of oil refineries.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°121Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market
 N° 121 – June 2018 
 Ekaterina Dukhanina, Olivier Massol, François Lévêque


Based on a French case study, this article answers the question whether a merger of gas trading zones contributes to the development of liquid trading activities through a more efficient allocation and pricing of natural gas and an increased competition.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°120 Is there a market value for energy performance in a local private housing market?
 N° 120 – April 2018
 Déborah Leboullenger, Frédéric Lantz, Catherine Baumont


Using frontier fonctions instead of the customary hedonistic approach, this article aims to find evidence of a “green value” in a local housing market using notarial data on a small urban area in France.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°119Demand-pull instruments and the development of wind power in Europe: a counterfactual analysis
 N° 119 – March 2018
 Clément Bonnet, Marc Baudry


This paper examines the effect of demand-pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°118GIS-Based Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization of Charging Station for Electric Vehicles – Taking a District in Beijing as an Example
 N° 118 – February 2018
 Yue Zhang, Arash Farnoosh, Qi Zhang, Siyuan Chen


The rapid development of electric vehicles can greatly alleviate the environmental problems and energy tension. However, the lack of public supporting facilities has become the biggest problem hinders its development.

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2017

  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°117Spatial integration of natural gas markets: A literature review 
 N° 117 – November 2017
 Ekaterina Dukhanina, Olivier Massol


The purpose of this paper is to clarify the definition of an integrated market and to provide a commented overview of the different empirical methodologies that have been proposed to assess the degree of spatial integration of natural gas markets.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°116Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions
 N° 116 – September 2017
 Victor Court, Pierre-André Jouvet, Frédéric Lantz


This article build a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°115The technology and cost structure of a natural gas pipeline
 N° 115 – July 2017
 Florian Perrotton, Olivier Massol 


This note details a complete microeconomic characterization of the physical relationships between input use and the level of output of a simple point-to-point gas pipeline system and uses it to contribute to the public policy discussions pertaining to the economic regulation of natural gas pipelines.

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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°114Impact of variable renewable production on electricity prices in Germany: a Markov Switching model
 N° 114 – May 2017
 Cyril Martin de Lagarde, Frédéric Lantz


This paper aims at assessing the impact of renewable energy sources (RES) production on electricity spot prices. To do so, we use a two-regime Markov Switching (MS) model, that enables to disentangle the so-called “merit-order effect” due to wind and solar photovoltaic productions (used in relative share of the electricity demand), depending on the price being high or low. 

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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°113Long-term estimates of the energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions
 N° 113 – March 2017
 Victor Court, Florian Fizaine


In this study, we use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012.


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  Couverture - Cahier Economie n°112Market power and spatial arbitrage between interconnected gas hubs
 N° 112 – January 2017
 Olivier Massol, Albert Banal-Estañol


This paper examines the performance of the spatial arbitrages carried out between two regional markets for wholesale natural gas linked by a pipeline system. We use the case of the “Interconnector” pipeline linking Belgium and the UK as an application.


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2016

N° 111 - September 2016
PDF Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model (PDF - 2,26 Mo)

N° 110 - September 2016
PDF Energy transition in transportation under cost uncertainty, an assessment based on robust op...( PDF - 2,6 Mo)

N° 109 - September 2016
PDF Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run? (PDF - 200 Ko)

N° 108 - September 2016
PDF Robust Energy Transition Pathways for Global Warming Targets (PDF - 5 Mo)

N° 107 - July 2016
PDF The land use change time-accounting failure (PDF - 600 Ko)

N° 106 - April 2016
PDF Sanctions against Iran: An assessment of their global impact through the lens of international m... (PDF - 600 Ko)

N° 105 - April 2016
PDF  On the economic optimization of national power generation mix in Iran: A Markowitz’ portfolio-... (PDF - 4,2 Mo)

N° 104 - April 2016
PDF  The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Trans... (PDF - 750 Ko)

N° 103 - April 2016
PDF  Beyond average energy consumption in the French residential housing market: A household classifi... (PDF - 1,8 Mo)

N° 102 - April 2016
PDF  Un nouveau cycle de fusions et acquisitions dans le secteur des hydrocarbures ? Une analyse éco... (PDF - 1 Mo)
 


2015

N° 101 - July 2015
PDF  Decarbonisation of electricity generation in an oil & gas producing country: "A sensitivity an...  (PDF - 1 Mo)

N° 100 - November 2015
PDF  Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a Eu... (PDF - 3,82 Mo)

N° 99 - July 2015
PDF  On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach (PDF - 1,72 Mo)
 


2014

N° 98 - October 2014
PDF  (How) does sectoral detail affect the robustness of policy insights from energy system models?... (PDF - 4,30 Mo)

N° 97 - January 2014
PDF  Market power across the Channel: Are Continental European gas markets isolated? (PDF - 444 Ko)
 


2013

N° 96 - December 2013
PDF   Second-best urban tolling with distributive concerns (PDF - 570 Ko)

N° 95 - December 2013
PDF  The use of Meta-Regression Analysis to harmonize LCA literature: an application to GHG emissions of 2nd and 3rd generation biofuels (PDF - 1,7 Mo)

N° 94 - 2013
PDF  Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term? (PDF - 712 Ko)

N° 93 - 2013
PDF  On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach (PDF - 340 Ko)

N° 92 - December 2013 
PDF  Electricity generation analyses in an oil-exporting country: Transition to non-fossil fuel based power units in Saudi Arabia (PDF - 520 Ko)

N° 91 - November 2013
PDF  Personal car, public transport and other alternatives? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals (PDF - 1,23 Mo)

N° 90 - November 2013
PDF  Lessons from the use of a long-term energy model for consequential life cycle assessment: the BTL case (PDF - 7 Mo)
 


2012

N° 89 - October 2012
PDF  Joining the CCS Club! Insights from a Northwest European CO2 Pipeline Project (PDF - 754 Ko)

N° 88 - September 2012
PDF  Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis (PDF - 419 Ko)

N° 87 - September 2012
PDF  The French biofuels mandates under cost uncertainty - an assessment based on robust optimization (PDF - 1 Mo)
 


2011

N° 86 - December 2011
PDF  Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: analysis of historical trends by geographical zones using a macro-level methodology (PDF - 554 Ko)

N° 85 - December 2011
PDF  Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas (PDF - 1 Mo)

N° 84 - December 2011
PDF  A generalized Nash-Cournot model for the north-western European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: the GaMMES model (PDF - 1 Mo)

N° 83 - December 2011
PDF Bioenergies usages in electricity generation utility means through a modelling approach: application to the French case (PDF - 1 Mo)

N° 82 - December 2011
PDF  The bioenergies development: the role of biofuels and the CO2 price (PDF - 812 Ko)

N° 81 - April 2011
PDF  Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach (PDF - 1,5 Mo)

N° 80 - April 2011
PDF  Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market (PDF - 0,3 Mo)

N° 79 - April 2011
PDF  Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market, some model-based insights (PDF - 1,6 Mo)

N° 78 - March 2011
PDF  Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation? (PDF - 0,8 Mo)
 


2010

N° 77 - December 2010
PDF  Forecasting Air Traffic and corresponding Jet-Fuel Demand until 2025 (PDF - 1,9 Mo)

N° 76 - December 2010
PDF  Analyse des tendances et des ruptures sur le marché automobile français - Modélisation du taux de diésélisation dans le parc (PDF - 330 Ko)
 


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Contact

Victor COURT

  • Lecturer, Center for Energy Economics and Management (IFP School)